What can I predict for India, politically?

Who will be PM in 2014?

Mr. N. Modi is going to be a PM under coalition NDA (BJP will be a short of majority, as it seems now). But, he will not last long, until and unless a dire need arises in India. India will be undergoing a large turmoil, which will require more of a competent managerial-leader, which seems he is.

Why Mr. N. Modi seems likely to be a PM?

There are two probabilistic reasons. 1) His development model 2) Expectations of Hindutva.

    • Southern India, partially Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and some Northern pockets seems vouching for Modi’s development model.
    • Maharashtra, partly Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand seem to be vouching for his Hindutva delivery.
    • West Bengal, Jammu & Kashmir will be vouching for his plan for curbing anti-immigrant and anti-terrorist activities
    • Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir will be looking for his strategy on protection from invasion.

How the developmental model of Mr. N. Modi will be beneficial for India?

    • Developments are going on in these states, and other parts of the country, from some time but are slow, sluggish and embroiled with bureaucracy. The rise in corrupt practices proves that much of development work is taking place, but without proper checks and balances.
    • However, in Gujarat, Mr. N. Modi expedited and executed it very well. In a short span of 10 years, his government delivered what has been promised, 24 hour electricity, increasing literacy rate, lowering unemployment and increasing access to health care.
    • The only benefit is, in long-term India will be able to put some proper checks and balances in place. But, to harness its potential, India needs to implement free market policy with proper checks and balances.

What will be the challenges for Mr. N. Modi’s government?

    • Some states are not much after development but rather grabbing illegitimate power, especially Utter Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra. Also, these states have other hidden agendas, establishing a Hindu state and a uniform civil code, which might become detrimental for his government.
    • Also, his Government will have to resolve the problem with the Bangladeshi’s illegal migrants in West Bengal and bringing back the pandits to Jammu & Kashmir (kind of putting ones hand in hornet’s nest) , which is long pending and need to be resolved at the earliest, before it blows out of proportion and beyond control.
    • On the other hand Pakistan and China seems to be looking for an opportunity to enter the borders of India. This will definitely spurt a war. This means, Indian defense need to increase their resources to combat both these forces at the same time.

india pol 2014

Will Mr. N. Modi’s government survive for five years?

Currently, looking at the current scenario, it doesn’t seem so. But there is ray of hope. The world is undergoing a socio-economic turmoil. In such circumstances India will require a competent strategic administrator which will favour Mr. N. Modi and his government. It is predicted that there is a highly likelihood of a third world war. If so, then this will save his position for time being, and will lay the ground for India which has to look out for a great leader who can propel India towards prosperity, where there is no turning back.

But, liberty and freedom will come to India at a great cost.

|| Om Namah Shivaaya ||

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